2018 Housing Sector Report

2018 Housing Sector Report
In Turkey, 1 million 375 thousand and 398 housing were sold last year. 1 million 409 thousand and 314 housing sales had been recorded in the previous year. 

Harmoni Real Estate Appraisal discussed the housing market of year 2018 in detail. In the report, the Construction License References to the years between 2016-2018 (Building License Statistics, TURKSTAT 2019) was focused by considering the data provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute.  Click for the Full Report. Housing Sector Report in 2018.

When the number of buildings having building licenses are examined, it is observed that there was a 36 percent increase in 2017 in reference to the previous year and 53 percent decrease in 2018 in reference to the previous year. The main reason for this situation is the experienced economic changes in 2018 as well as the increase in the construction costs especially and the decrease at the rate of housing sales.

As a result of the comparison of the data published by the TURKSTAT, the Average Building Acreage and Number of Flats Per Building were analyzed separately. As a result of the analysis, it is observed that the size of the housing buildings produced between years 2017-2018 decreased (- 22%) and in parallel to this, the number of flats per building decreased too. In the point of the question; as a result of the economic changes in 2018, by compared to the previous years it is concluded that the decisions were taken about the housing projects which are relatively smaller in scale.

CONSTRUCTION COST INDEX

While the construction cost index in the years between 2016 and 2018 is being examined, the rate of the US dollar, which is considered to be the major set off the index, is also analyzed. The Construction Cost Index (CCI) and the rate of US dollar data are indicated in the graph below.

When the related data are examined together; it should be kept in mind that there are other important factors that constitute the Construction Cost Index together with to be observed that there is a parallelism between the Construction Cost Index and the rate of dollar.

In 2017, while the Construction Cost Index showed 16% increase in reference to the previous year, the rate of dollar showed 20% increase. In 2018, the Construction Cost Index showed 26% increase in reference to the previous year and the rate of dollar showed 32% increase. In the light of these data, it is observed that there is a correlation between these two data together with the other elements are thought to be examined in detail which constitute the cost of construction except for raw materials such as concrete and iron etc.

HOUSING SALES STATISTICS

While housing sales between 2016 and 2018 were being examined, the mortgaged and other sales were taken into consideration as two-stage and the Metropolitan Cities were also examined. The related data are detailed below.

In 2017, total housing sales increased by 5% in reference to the previous year and amounted to 1.41 million, in 2018, it was 1.37 million with a decrease of 2% in reference to the previous year. When analyzed in terms of types of the sales, the share of mortgaged sales in total sales was 34% in 2016 and 2017, it was observed that this ratio decreased to 20% in 2018, and it is thought that the change in the interest rates of housing loans is the most important reason for this situation.

When the details of the mortgaged sales are examined; in 2017, it is realized as 473.099 with a 5% increase in reference to the previous year and in 2018, it was realized as 276.820 with a decrease of 41% in reference to the previous year.

When the number of housing sales in metropolitan cities is examined, whereas there is not a significant decrease in Istanbul between the years 2016 and 2018; the number of housing sales decreased by 13%, 10% and 9% respectively in Ankara-Izmir and Bursa provinces between 2018-2017.

In addition to this, significant declines in mortgage sales draws the attention. However, as a result of the increase of the other sales, it can be said that total sales follow a stable course.

FOREIGN SALES STATISTICS

In 2018, 39 thousand and 663 foreigners bought houses from different locations of Turkey. This figure was 22 thousand and 234 in 2017.

Whereas the sale of property to foreigners is relatively stable between the years of 2016 and 2017, in 2018, the share of the country in total sales reached 2.88 percent, with an increase of 78 percent in reference to the previous year.

Foreign investors bought 14 thousand and 270 houses in Istanbul, 7 thousand and 938 houses in Antalya, 2 thousand and 720 houses in Bursa, 2 thousand and 63 houses in Yalova and 2 thousand and 133 houses in Ankara.

When the sales to the foreigners in 2018 are examined at the provincial level, it is noteworthy that Istanbul has the 36 percent and Antalya 20 percent share which constitute 56 percent of the total number of cities. The fact that Istanbul and Antalya are two cities of the Turkey that are most attractive to tourists, produces a serious effect in this case.

In 2018, increases were realized with a percentage of 74 in Istanbul, 69 in Antalya, 85 in Bursa, 91 percent in Yalova, 161 in Ankara and 76 in the other provinces, in reference to the previous year.

RESULT

When the produced stock structure is examined; in 2018, a 53 percent of decrease was experienced in reference to the previous year and the main reasons are commented that the increase in the construction costs due to the fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate and the stability in the house sales.

When the change in the construction cost index is examined, the increase in the raw material due to the changes in the dollar exchange rate is considered.

Developments in housing sales can be explained by the decrease in the attractiveness of the housing, which was preferred as an investment previously, which is followed by the facts that the financing conditions bring heavier loads in reference to the previous years and the interest income on deposits increased. It is understood that the housing lost its attractiveness for investment at the point of the return of the housing fala behind the deposit return. At the same time, the rise in long-term interest rates on housing loans has interrupted the housing investment.

Substantial increase has occurred especially in the Turkey's overall home sales related to housing foreign sales as a result of the changes in the legislation of civic reception and has increased to a remarkable position with 3%.  

Because of the decrease in the newly produced housing stock and the increase in construction costs cannot be reflected on the housing sales prices, the housing stock of 2019-2020 is considered as the melting years. In addition to this, as a result of the maturation of economic and financial conditions, the inflationary environment and the balancing of the interest rates, the housing sector is expected to be the center of attraction as in the years between 2015 and 2016.

Konut 2018 Rapor Harmoni Gayrimenkul Değerleme
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